Commodities & Futures update

We saw a small rise in prices early in the month, but prices have dropped back since then (except for Rice). Wheat now trading near $8, Corn around the $5.80 level, and Soybeans around $13.75. Rice is now going up again.

Sugar has pulled back a bit to around .13c. Cotton continues to fall, and Coffee is up a bit.

Oil prices continue to drop in spite of hurricanes and other global events. Same for Heating Oil/Diesel and Natural Gas. Talk on the street is that a large number of hedge funds have been exiting the commodity market (some have experienced major losses as well).

Gold pulled back to the $800 level again. Silver and Copper fell as well.

Bonds continue to rise as more money flows in to the fixed income market. The 10 yr Note and the 30 yr Bond have both been up this month, partly due to a lot of uncertainty in the stock markets, credit markets, and global markets. However, some traders expect to see a top in this market soon!

This was a volatile month in the currency markets. The US Dollar Index continued to rise since most of the Financial stocks hit a bottom on July 15th, and because the Eurozone economy is now weakening. The Euro pulled back sharply based on weakness in that economy. Likewise for the British Pound which now seems to be in a freefall! Weakness also seen in the Canadian Dollar. The Yen has been both up and down for the month.

Stocks continue to rise a bit since the July 15th. bottom. See my Stock Market Blog for more details.

Note: Charts are 'live' so comments above refer to the appropriate time on the chart.

News Stories:
Why you should keep a cool head on commodities
Mexican Production Disappoints Again in July - Big Time
U.S. Natural Gas Seen to Be Superabundant
Corn rises for fourth day to three-week high
CBOT Corn Review: Tumbles On Dollar's Surge, Weather
Crops To The Rescue

Commodities Update -Jul 31st

We are now starting to see falling commodity prices, especially in Energy and the Grains. Natural Gas prices saw a huge drop this month!

Wheat has dropped to around $7.80, Corn to around the $5.80, and Soybeans to around $13.75. Rice has pulled back quite a bit as well.

Sugar was down, then back up to around .14c. Cotton and Coffee were down as well.

Oil prices have dropped sharply to around $124 from the peak of $147 in mid-July. Heating Oil/Diesel also pulled back sharply along with Natural Gas. This could be the beginning of a big correction in energy prices, with Oil possibly going back to the $110-$115 area.

Even Gold pulled back to the $900 level again. Copper fell to $3.70 after spiking up to just over $4.00.

The 10 yr Note and the 30 yr Bond have been both up and down this month with a lot of uncertainty in the markets.

The US Dollar Index has been rising since the Financial stocks seemed to hit a bottom on July 15th. The Euro started pulling back from the $1.60 top. Likewise for the British Pound after hitting $2.00. The Yen is also showing weakness; same with the Canadian Dollar.

Stocks have been rising a bit after the Financial stocks seemed to hit a bottom on July 15th. See my Stock Market Blog for more details.

Note: Charts are 'live' so comments above refer to the appropriate time on the chart.

News Stories:
Oil Market BreakDown!
CRB - Commodities Ring Bearish
Second Worst Month For Commodities Ever!
Grain Outlook: The Summer Price Slide
Corn tumbles to more than seven-week low
Corn, soybeans fall by maximum as crude tumbles

Commodity Update -June 30th

This month we close out the 2nd quarter with continued signs of inflation as most commodities continue to rise after the recent pullback. Just look at the CRB commodity index continuing to hit new all time highs (20 year chart)!

Wheat is on the rise again, now trading at around $8.50; we don't really have the problems that we had last year, so we'll see if this price holds up. We saw a big run up in Corn to around the $7.60 level, and Soybeans to around $16.00, mainly based on weather issues. No real change in Rice.

Sugar is also rising with the last trade at around 12c. Cotton and Coffee also on the rise. I guess everything is rising!

Oil prices hit $142 -lots of media talk about speculators driving up prices. Heating Oil/Diesel is flirting with the $4.00 level. Natural Gas is now trading up to the $13.40 level (I mentioned it in the last post).

Gold surged past the $900 level again after the Fed meeting and the subsequent drop in the US Dollar. Copper rose to $3.88.

The 10 yr Note and the 30 yr Bond recovered somewhat as investors fled the stock market, looking for a safe haven. FYI: Bonds are not a safe haven!

The Euro still seems to be in a trading range near $1.56. Likewise for the British Pound, and the Yen; the US Dollar Index fell a bit further after the Fed meeting. The Canadian Dollar is about even with the US Dollar.

Stocks did in fact break down (as indicated in my previous post), and had the worst June since 1930! See my Stock Market Blog for more details.

Note: Charts are 'live' so comments above refer to the appropriate time on the chart.

News Stories:
Oil prices top record $142 dollars
Corn’s underwater rally
Wheat Rallies Again
Wheat Rises for Third Day as Dry Weather Forecast for Australia

Commodity Update -May 31st

Oil prices finally broke down from the recent top at $135, seeming to take down most commodity prices as well. The US Dollar is in somewhat of a rally mode, helping to push prices down.

Wheat prices are flat after the recent drop, still trading at around $7.50. Likewise for Corn -still holding up around the $6 level, and Soybeans at around $13.50. Rice continues to pull back.

Sugar did in fact make it back down to the .10c area where it is currently trading. Cotton dropped below 70 to close around 66c. Coffee is in a trading range between 1.30 and 1.40.

Oil finally pulled back to $126 area; Heating Oil/Diesel pulled back as well. Natural Gas closed just over the $11.50 mark -keep your eye on this one!

Gold pulled back again, this time to close around $880 -I'm still expecting another pullback in Gold before resuming the long term up-trend. Copper dropped as well.

The 10 yr Note and the 30 yr Bond finally broke down, indicating higher inflation/interest rates.

The Euro seems to be in a trading range near $1.56. Likewise for the British Pound, the Yen and the US Dollar Index. The Canadian Dollar is about even with the US Dollar.

Stocks may be starting to break down at this level.
See my Stock Market Blog for more details.

Note: Charts are 'live' so comments above refer to the appropriate time on the chart.

News Stories:
Commodity Policies Set for Revision

Commodity Update -May 18th

Energy prices continue to dominate the news with Oil topping $127 last week. Food prices seem to have stabilized for now, but with continued high demand and high prices for corn I don't expect to see any relief any time soon.

Wheat prices continue to fall, hitting $7.50 this past week. Corn is still trading up around the $6 level while Soybeans may be in a short term up-trend. Rice continues to pull back from the mid-April highs.

Sugar looks like it is heading back down to the .10c area. Cotton may have bottomed near 70 and Coffee is in a short term up-trend.

Oil is hitting new highs in the $127 area, while Natural Gas closed just over the $11 mark. Gasoline and Heating Oil/Diesel are both higher as well.

Gold closed just above $900 after the recent pullback to $850 -not sure if we will see any more pullbacks before it resumes the up-trend. Copper is still holding up just under $4.

The 10 yr Note and the 30 yr Bond have been in a trading range with no clear short term direction.

Looks like the Euro did top out around $1.60 (see previous post). The British Pound is still trading around $1.95 while the recent US dollar rise against the Yen may be topping out near the 105 level. The US Dollar Index is still in a small up-trend.

Stocks are still inching higher, now that many of the big companies have reported their earnings. See my Stock Market Blog for more details.

Note: Charts are 'live' so comments above refer to the appropriate time on the chart.

News Stories:
Cheap oil may be history as $100 becomes norm
Rebuffed by Saudis, Bush calls for domestic oil exploration
Gold futures close near $900 as oil prices surge
Corn stocks expected to fall sharply to 13-year low

Memorial Day travel hit by high fuel costs
Holiday drivers shrug at record gas prices (last year's headline!)

Commodity Update -April 27th

The commodity markets overall have given up some ground recently, though we still see strength in the Energy complex, and we continue to see higher Rice prices (Costco and Sams Club announced last week that they were limiting customer purchases of bulk rice).

Wheat prices have pulled back significantly from the $13 level in March to around $8.00 last Friday. Corn topped out at $6 in April and is pulling back a little here, though the weather conditions for planting is still an unknown factor. Soybeans is also pulling back from the March high of around $15.50.

Sugar prices are also dropping, and may be basing out in this area (or heading back down to the .10c area). Cotton and Coffee have also dropped from their recent high.

Oil seems to be holding up in the $120 area, while Natural Gas is rising past the $11 mark. Gasoline is higher, and Heating Oil (diesel) seems to be consolidating at the $3.30 level.

Gold still looks like it wants to drop back to the mid $800 area. Copper is holding the high we saw in early March near $4.

The 10 yr Note and the 30 yr Bond continue to fall quite a bit (yields rising, inflation worries).

The Euro might have topped out for now around $1.60, while the British Pound appears to be stuck in a trading range just under $2. The US dollar continues to gain against the Yen since the March 16th low. The US Dollar Index also gained some ground this past week.

Stocks are still inching higher, as we continue to see some volatility with earnings reports coming in, and the much awaited Fed decision on interest rates due next week. See my Stock Market Blog for more details.

Note: Charts are 'live' so comments above refer to the appropriate time on the chart.

News Stories:
Food Costs Rising Fastest in 17 Years
World's food crisis deepens
Vietnam limits rice exports on food security concerns
Brazil Halts Rice Exports to Ensure Domestic Supply
Brazil Ethanol Consumption Overtakes Gasoline
World Bank tackles food emergency
Wheat prices down 40% from peak

Commodity Update -April 7th

The commodity markets have turned around since March 23rd and seem to be heading back up again, with strength in the Energy complex, Copper, and Corn; also with help from the weak US Dollar.

Grains

Wheat prices continue to fall and may find support in the $8-$9 area; we are still tight on supplies. Corn continues in a new uptrend (after a pullback in March), based on the lower acreage data from the crop planting report. We could see even higher prices if the weather doesn't co-operate. Soybeans sold off a bit based on that same report, with increased acreage planting reported.

Softs

Sugar seems to be basing out in this area after dropping from its high in early March. Likewise for Cotton and Coffee.

Oil is heading back to the $110 area, while Natural Gas is also heading back up to the previous high we saw in March. Likewise for Gasoline and Heating Oil (diesel) -bad news for the truckers.

Gold looks like it wants to drop to the mid $800 area. We also saw a pullback in Silver. Copper is heading back up to the previous high we saw in early March.

Bonds

The 10 yr Note and the 30 yr Bond are starting to fall (yields rising).

The Euro seems to be heading higher again as the US Dollar falls, while the British Pound appears to be weakening. The Yen also lost some ground. The US Dollar seems to be consolidating here in a trading range.

Stocks have been inching higher, though we continue to see some volatility. See my Stock Market Blog for more details.

Note: Charts are 'live' so comments above refer to the appropriate time on the chart.

News Stories:
Examining the USDA Crop Report
Corn futures rise on farming forecast
Corn hits $6 a bushel on tight supplies
Soybeans Lock Limit Down on March 31 USDA crop report
How safe are our Canadian banks?

Commodity Update -March 23rd

We saw a big drop in commodity prices last week as the US Dollar regained some strength after the Fed lowered interest rates on Tuesday. Some of the price drops were also a reflection of profit taking after the recent big run up in prices (click chart to enlarge).

Grains

Wheat prices fell along with most other commodities. Corn and Soybeans also continued to pull back and are now trading near the mid January lows. We get the crop acreage planting report later this month (31st).

Softs

Sugar has been selling off since the beginning of the month. Likewise for Cotton and Coffee.

Oil spiked to $110 then pulled back to around $101, while Natural Gas also had a sharp pullback. Heating Oil had a small pullback this past week.

Gold spiked over $1020 then we saw a huge pullback in just two trading days last week. We also saw a pullback in Silver, Copper, and Aluminum.

Bonds

The 10 yr Note and the 30 yr Bond continue to rise, reflecting a flight to quality from the stock market. Meanwhile the 3 month Treasury yield dropped to almost zero (a 50 year low), also reflecting a flight to quality.

The Euro pulled back sharply after the Fed interest rate cut. It previously hit an all time high of almost $1.59 to the US Dollar. The British Pound continued to fall from it's recent high of $2.04, closing the week around $1.98. Starting on March 16th we got the bounce in the Yen (inverse chart) that I predicted in the last post -we'll see how far it goes, and if the stock market follows it up. The US Dollar finally recovered a bit after the Fed rate cut.

Stocks displayed extreme volatility this past week. See my Stock Market Blog for more details.

Note: Charts are 'live' so comments above refer to the appropriate time on the chart.

News Stories:
A Global Need for Grain That Farms Can’t Fill
Soybeans, Corn Fall After Brazil Crop Forecast; Wheat Declines
High Wheat Prices Raise Grocery Costs
Oil Drops on Worries About Weaker Demand
Volatility continues in commodities

March 8th Update

This week we saw most of the food commodities pull back sharply, while the energy complex and the metals continued to move up. Looks like the hedge funds decided to sell and take some profits in the food commodities! I think we will eventually see more upside in wheat prices though.

Grains

Wheat prices are holding near the $11 level after pulling back from their high. Corn pulled back a bit while Soybeans lost a lot of ground. We get another monthly crop report next week.

Softs

Sugar lost a lot of ground as well. Cotton and Coffee spiked up then pulled back like most of the others.

Oil crossed over $106 this week, Natural Gas hit $10, and Heating Oil continued to rise.

Gold continues to hit new highs as the US Dollar weakens -we could see $1000 soon, then maybe a pullback. We also saw a rise in Silver, Copper, and Aluminum.

Bonds

The 10 yr Note rose this week, maybe reflecting a flight to quality as the stock market retreated, however the 30 yr Bond pulled back -it's been a crazy market!